Public Health Weekly

There’s lots of good news to report on vaccines, but the virus and variants are also gaining ground. Variants are spreading rapidly in the U.S., driving (along with premature re-opening) the fourth surge that’s now underway. Here, I’ll explain why equity is not just about fairness, but essential for pandemic control.

The fourth surge is here

The feared fourth surge is building. CDC reports in its Covid Data Tracker Weekly that cases are up more than 8% nationally over the past week, and test positivity rates have risen slightly, to 5.1%. …

Public Health Weekly

As predicted, a fourth surge of Covid appears to be beginning in the U.S., fueled by spread of variants and premature reopening. As CDC reports in its Covid Data Tracker, cases are up 7% nationally, and the test positivity rate is also inching up, now at 4.7%. Because the pace of vaccination has been accelerating, my prediction is that despite a fourth surge, deaths won’t increase substantially. But we must solve systemic issues of vaccine inequity, both in the United States and globally.

One particularly concerning trend is in Michigan. Hospitalizations in Michigan are increasing rapidly, especially among 40–49 year…

Public Health Weekly

Vaccinations have already saved at least 40,000 lives in the United States, and the pace keeps increasing. But explosive spread of variants in Brazil and lower interest in vaccination are ominous portents.

A fourth surge is likely in the U.S., but most likely a less deadly one.

Epidemiology tells the story

First, the epidemiology. Cases are trending down, but have stopped decreasing in many places, and are increasing in some areas. New cases are plateauing nationally at about 50,000 per day, as reported by the CDC Covid Data Tracker (shown below), as are test positivity rates, with a concerning trend of PCR test positivity…

Public Health Weekly

The U.S. has now hit two milestones in the Covid-19 pandemic: 100 million total infections (most of them undiagnosed), and as reported by the CDC, 100 million vaccine doses administered.

In the race of vaccination vs. variants, we’re gaining on the virus. It’s slow progress that we hope to accelerate as more people get vaccinated. But nobody should declare victory in the third quarter. As I’ve said before, safer doesn’t mean safe.

Encouraging progress

CDC reports encouraging progress in its weekly Covid summary and website, both of which continue to get better:

• 11% decrease in cases this past week;
• Test positivity rate…

Public Health Weekly

Are we finally nearing the new normal? By May things will be much safer, but we’re not there yet. Vaccine rollout continues to gain momentum, saving lives. Cases are still trending down, although the declines are slowing. But transmission is still high in most of the country, and variants could quickly derail the progress we’ve made. We need to hang in there.

Farewell Covid Tracking Project

I want to offer a huge thank you to all who worked on the Covid Tracking Project, which wound down this week. Their final weekly metrics are reported in the graphs below — this comprehensive level of data…

Public Health Weekly

There is now steady good news about Covid-19 in the United States. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to decrease, and the pace of vaccination is accelerating. Serious risks remain from variants, vaccine inequity, and failure to learn the lessons of Covid-19.

First, the good news. As reported by the CDC, cases in the United States have decreased 75% from their peak in early January, with hospitalizations and deaths following. Vaccinations (after a weather-related disruption) are increasing, and much more supply is on the way — the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will add millions of doses to the supply. …

One year ago today, based on analysis by experts from around the world at Resolve to Save Lives, we and others wrote, sadly, that a Covid pandemic was inevitable.

In this past year, our team helped the world better understand and more effectively respond to the Covid pandemic that has, tragically, taken so many lives. Covid revealed stark and unacceptable gaps in our public health and primary care systems, and also validated Resolve’s approach to help close these gaps.

None of this would be possible without our colleagues at Vital Strategies and the support of our donors. Bloomberg Philanthropies, the…

Public Health Weekly

Covid cases continue to plummet, although a small part of the recent decrease may be due to weather-related testing site closures. And while the vaccination rollout is going more smoothly, we must address equity much more effectively. Deaths are decreasing. Global collaboration is rising. Spring, not Covid, is increasingly in the air.

Better, But Not Yet Good

Covid decreases are steep, sustained, and nationwide. Cases decrease first, then hospitalizations, then deaths. There are four major reasons for the decrease: less travel, less mixing of people indoors, more consistent mask wearing, and growing immunity from infections (about 30% of the U.S. …